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婴儿死亡漏报对平均预期寿命的影响及区域差异
婴儿死亡漏报 平均预期寿命 婴儿死亡漏报可能性指数 聚类分析 空间自相关
2016/11/11
婴儿死亡漏报是影响婴儿死亡率准确性及平均预期寿命可信度的重要因素。文章基于2010年中国人口普查数据，从理论和实证两个方面分析了婴儿死亡漏报对平均预期寿命的影响，并利用聚类分析和空间自相关分析探究了婴儿死亡漏报率的可能水平及其对平均预期寿命的影响的地区差异。研究发现死亡水平越低，婴儿死亡率变动所引起的平均预期寿命的变动就越大；婴儿死亡漏报率越高，婴儿死亡漏报率的变动所引起的平均预期寿命的变动就越大...
文章在探讨中国小区域（市县）使用概率人口预测方法的必要性和可行性的基础上，以上海市青浦区为例进行了实证应用。小区域人口预测往往面临数据缺乏、数据质量不高和频繁的人口迁移流动等问题，这些都增大了人口预测的不确定性，对不确定性的科学把握是概率预测方法的优势所在。文章通过比较各种概率预测方法的适用性后，发现由Alho等（2005）发展的随机人口预测方法能够克服小区域人口预测面临的问题，从而得出科学合理的...
运用空间计量分析技术,将空间因素引入传统收敛模型,对基于教育指标法、成本法和收入法三种人力资本测算方法的1987-2010年的省域人均人力资本进行空间相关性检验与收敛性分析。研究结果表明,我国省域人力资本具有显著的正向空间相关性,人力资本在区域上并非无规律的随机分布,而是在京津、苏沪浙地区形成了高—高聚集的良性发展态势,并对周围区域产生辐射作用,人力资本积累的空间溢出效应显著。基于教育指标测算法和...
HIV is spread through structured sexual networks, which are influenced by migration
patterns, but network-oriented studies of mobility and HIV risk behavior have been
limited.
Background: The growing interest in pathways, the increased availability of life-history data, innovations in statistical and demographic techniques, and advances in software technology have stimulate...
Do student loans delay marriage? Debt repayment and family formation in young adulthood
college debt family formation marriage student loan
2014/11/26
Background: With increasing levels of student loan debt, the path to economic stability may be less smooth than it was for earlier generations of college graduates. This paper explores this emerging t...
Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations
aggregation correlation forecasting probabilistic projection pseudo-likelihood total fertility rate
2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) Population Division constructs probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which pro...
Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy
autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model oldest old potential support ratio t distribution United Nations World Population Prospects
2014/11/26
Background: The United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers fo...
Ethnic differences in integration levels and return migration intentions: A study of Estonian migrants in Finland
ethnicity integration return migration
2014/11/26
Background: Immigrants‘ desire to stay in the host country or return to the country of origin depends largely on the balance between their degree of integration in the host country and their level of ...
Self-Reported Versus Performance-Based Measures of Physical Function: Prognostic Value for Survival
disability mortality performance assessments physical function self report
2014/11/26
Background: Although previous studies have indicated that performance assessments strongly predict future survival, few have evaluated the incremental value in the presence of controls for self-report...
An application of MCMC simulation in mortality projection for populations with limited data
Bayesian MCMC modelling mortality projection WinBUGS
2014/11/26
Objective: IIn this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, via the software WinBUGS, to project future mortality for populations with limite...
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
AIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South AfricaAIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South Africa
2014/11/25
Background: We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality efficiently ...
Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Asia cause of death decomposition East Asia life expectancy old age mortality South-East Asia
2014/11/25
Background: Eastern and South-Eastern Asian countries have witnessed a marked decline in old age mortality in recent decades. Yet no studies have investigated the trends and patterns in old age mortal...
Cause-specific measures of life years lost
competing risks cumulative incidence life expectancy life years lost multiple decrement life-table
2014/11/25
Background: A new measure of the number of life years lost due to specific causes of death is introduced.Methods: This measure is based on the cumulative incidence of death, it does not require "indep...