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清华大学社会科学学院政治学系胡悦副教授《Democracy, Public Support, and Measurement Uncertainty》一文刊发于《American Political Science Review》
清华大学社会科学学院政治学系 胡悦 Democracy, Public Support, and Measurement Uncertainty American Political Science Review 民主政权
2022/7/12
2022年5月，清华大学政治学系胡悦副教授、爱荷华大学邰月红及爱荷华大学Frederick Solt共著的题为“Democracy, Public Support, and Measurement Uncertainty”一文，在政治学顶级期刊American Political Science Review（《美国政治科学评论》）上网络首发。三位研究者聚焦民主政权与公众支持的关系，并且对这一领域...
Mortality Change, the Uncertainty Effect, and Retirement
Mortality Change the Uncertainty Eff ect Retirement
2015/9/21
We examine the role of declining mortality in explaining the rise of retirement over the course of the
20th century. We construct a model in which individuals make labor/leisure choices over their li...
Credit Rationing and Internal Ratings in the Face of Innovation and Uncertainty
Credit Rationing Classification Criteria Basel II
2015/7/30
Some empirical investigations are pointing to the fact that high-tech firms are subject to credit rationing to a higher extent than the avereage. This excess of credit rationing may not be due top inf...
Model Uncertainty in Sociological Research: An Application to Religion and Economic Growth
Sociological Research Religion and Economic Growth
2015/6/23
Model uncertainty is pervasive in quantitative research. Classical statistical theory
assumes that only one (true) model is applied to a sample of data. In practice, however,
researchers do not know...
Not a Backlash, but a Multicultural Implosion from Within: Uncertainty and Crisis in the Case of South Tyrol's "Multiculturalism"
Not a Backlash Uncertainty
2014/12/12
This paper considers a case in which a regime commonly identified as "multicultural", locally entrenched and stringently defended by hegemonic politics, is nonetheless undergoing crisis and uncertaint...
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
Economic Uncertainty and Family Dynamics in Europe: Introduction
economic uncertainties employment Europe family dynamics fertility uncertainty unemployment
2014/11/21
Background: Economic uncertainty has become an increasingly important factor in explanations of declining fertility and postponed family formation across Europe. Yet the micro-level evidence on this t...
Estimating Trends in the Total Fertility Rate with Uncertainty Using Imperfect Data: Examples from West Africa
Bayesian inference Demographic and Health Survey local smoother retrospective surveys United Nations variable selection weighted likelihood bootstrap
2014/11/20
Background: Estimating the total fertility rate is challenging for many developing countries because of limited data and varying data quality. A standardized, reproducible approach to produce estimate...
The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe
education births Europe
2014/11/20
This paper analyzes how labor market instability since the late 1980s in Europe has
mediated decisions to have a second child. In particular, I seek to determine the
dimensions of economic uncerta...
Labour market integration, occupational uncertainty, and fertility choices in Germany and the UK
crossnational comparison fertility first birth occupational integration occupational uncertainty
2014/11/20
The aim of this paper is to investigate how occupational prospects affect first-birth decisions of men and women. Contrasting the continental conservative German welfare state with the liberal market ...
The influence of employment uncertainty on childbearing in France: A tempo or quantum effect?
birth parity event history analysis fertility gender labor market short-term employment unemployment
2014/11/20
This paper investigates whether unemployment and insecure employment periods merely delay fertility or also impact on completed fertility in France. It analyses both the timing of first childbearing a...
A Continuous Labour Supply Model in Microsimulation: A Life-Cycle Modelling Approach with Heterogeneity and Uncertainty Extension
lifetime labour supply dynamic microsimulation
2012/10/22
This paper advances a structural inter-temporal model of labour supply that is able to simulate the dynamics of labour supply in a continuous setting and to circumvent two main drawbacks of most of th...
Is Earnings Uncertainty Relevant for Educational Choice? An Empirical Analysis for China
wage expectations educational choice
2012/10/30
We use the method of Dominitz and Manski (1996) to solicit anticipated wage distributions for continuing to a Master degree or going to work after completing the Bachelor degree. The means of the dist...
Asking God about the date you will die: HIV testing as a zone of uncertainty in rural Malawi
ambivalence HIV testing Malawi
2010/11/30
Testing for HIV is becoming more available in Africa. Global advocates of testing see it as key to AIDS prevention. However, testing is not always perceived as a good thing by people at risk. Here, we...
Social Capital and the Uncertainty Reduction of Self-Employment
Self-employment social capital human capital event history
2013/10/18
We study the self-employed decision and its relation to human and social capital. Human capital is necessary to acquire skills. Social capital dampens the effects of uncertainty about future income. O...