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The Evolution of Bayesian Updating
evolution Bayesian conditionalization updating expected utility rationality
2016/5/30
An evolutionary basis for Bayesian rationality is suggested, by consid-ering how natural selection would operate on an organism's `policy' for choosing an action depending on an environmental signal. ...
A Monte Carlo simulation for the assessment of Bayesian updating in dynamic systems
Bayesian updating Monte Carlo Failure probability Complexity Dynamic
2012/4/22
The aim of this paper is to explore the effectiveness of Bayesian updating, especially in dynamic systems, where failure probability is variant in time. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation it wa...
Dynamics of Bayesian Updating with Dependent Data and Misspecified Models
Dynamics Bayesian Updating Dependent Data Misspecified Models
2010/3/17
Much is now known about the consistency of Bayesian updat-
ing on infinite-dimensional parameter spaces with independent or Marko-
vian data. Necessary conditions for consistency include the prior p...