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Time preference and its relationship with age,health,and survival probability
subjective discount rate delay discounting expected survival probability health age South Africa
2016/3/18
Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one’s age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one’s subjective discount rate (SDR), few studies have empi...
The age pattern of increases in mortality affected by HIV: Bayesian fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to data from the Agincourt HDSS field site in rural northeast South Africa
AIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South AfricaAIDS/HIV Bayesian inference life expectancy South Africa
2014/11/25
Background: We investigate the sex-age-specific changes in the mortality of a prospectively monitored rural population in South Africa. We quantify changes in the age pattern of mortality efficiently ...
Old age mortality in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia
Asia cause of death decomposition East Asia life expectancy old age mortality South-East Asia
2014/11/25
Background: Eastern and South-Eastern Asian countries have witnessed a marked decline in old age mortality in recent decades. Yet no studies have investigated the trends and patterns in old age mortal...
Working life gain from gain in old age life expectancy in India
elderly life expectancy old age dependency projections working life expectancy
2014/11/24
Background: It is important to evaluate the interaction between increasing life expectancy and changing age patterns in work participation from the perspective of planning for the greying population o...
Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Africa AIDS/HIV Bayesian melding Cohort Component Model of Population Projection estimation forecast IMIS incidence prevalence Tanzania Uganda
2014/11/21
Background: Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other im...
Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies: A model averaging approach
Booth-Maindonald-Smith method functional data analysis Hyndman-Ullah method Lee-Carter method Lee-Miller method principal components analysis random walk with drift
2014/11/21
Background: Any improvement in the forecast accuracy of life expectancy would be beneficial for policy decision regarding the allocation of current and future resources. In this paper, I revisit some ...
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by TOPALS
age-specific probabilities of death Brass model Lee-Carter method life expectancy at birth model age schedules partial adjustment model population projections relational model smoothing
2014/11/21
Background: TOPALS is a new relational model for smoothing and projecting age schedules. The model is operationally simple, flexible, and transparent. Objective: This article demonstrates how TOPALS c...
How life expectancy varies with perturbations in age-specific mortality
life expectancy mortality pace of aging perturbation
2014/11/21
Background: A naturally arising question in demography is how a given change in mortality affects life expectancy. Scholars have targeted this question with different aims and from different perspecti...