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Natural selection in a contemporary human population
Evolutionary rates heritability Homo sapiens medical traits
2016/3/18
Our aims were to demonstrate that natural selection is operating on contemporary humans, predict future evolutionary change for specific traits with medical significance, and show that for some traits...
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
Bayesian Bayesian approach England model averaging population forecasting Wales
2014/11/25
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model.Objecti...
Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model
Africa AIDS/HIV Bayesian melding Cohort Component Model of Population Projection estimation forecast IMIS incidence prevalence Tanzania Uganda
2014/11/21
Background: Much of our knowledge of the epidemiology and demography of HIV epidemics in Africa is derived from models fit to sparse, non-representative data. These often average over age and other im...
Are the Goals Set by the Millennium Declaration and the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development within Reach by 2015? (Vie Point)
Population Development 2015
2009/3/26
The risk now is that the benefits of development are increasingly favouring the well-to-do, leading to deepening inequality. Development is for everyone as the Millennium Declaration, makes very clear...
Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005-2050
Poland predictive distributions stochastic forecast uncertainty
2008/12/16
Forecasting the population of Poland is very challenging. Firstly, the country has been undergoing rapid demographic changes. In the 1990s, they were influenced by the political, economic, and social ...
Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway
cohort component method, forecast errors forecasting simulation stochastic population forecast time series uncertainty
2008/12/1
Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, rather than deterministic, so that their expected accuracy can be a...